We believe fundamental analysis is critical to determining investors’ expectations of current and future valuations of credit instruments. However, in light of current global monetary policy—and more specifically the Fed’s decision on September 17—investors must also understand money supply across the globe as any growth or contraction will have a significant impact on risk premia.
Based on the current actions of Chairwoman Yellen and the Federal Open Market Committee at large, we would expect to see money supply growth in the U.S. remain at historical averages going forward given the Fed’s accommodative stance.
Looking across the globe, money supply growth in the euro zone continues to be accommodative for risk assets based on discussion from the European Central Bank that contemplates extending the scope and/or duration of its quantitative easing program in the event inflation expectations are not met during the remainder of the program. Meanwhile, Chinese money supply is beginning to reaccelerate after a significant period of contraction. Investors will need to determine if this will be a meaningful tailwind for risk assets.
In sum, our expectations are that European credit assets—both corporate and structured—with a relatively short duration could perform reasonably well under these global economic conditions.
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