Single Ladies, Many Prospects

Rebecca Traister's new book, All the Single Ladies: Unmarried Women and the Rise of an Independent Nation, which borrows its title from the popular Beyoncé song, has become one of the most talked-about books of the spring in many literary circles. The book is not typical investment firm reading. I'd hazard a guess that its core audience is more likely found on college campuses, where readers have it propped alongside Notorious RBG on their nightstands. I should note that Traister’s book has received more nods of recognition in the halls of Brandywine Global than might be expected at an average asset management firm. However, this awareness comes as little surprise to us. As long-term investors—and as well-read investors who tend to challenge conventional ways of thinking—we strive to stay current on emerging trends, including major demographic shifts, and consider how these forces may shape the macro economy and the companies in which we invest.

Traister contends that the incredible increase in unmarried women in the U.S. is likely to have dramatic consequences. In her book, Traister cites many compelling statistics. In 2009, the percentage of married women dropped below 50% for the first time. In 1960, 60% of women were married by age 29; by 2009, that percentage had dropped to 20%. These are seismic changes. Politically, this trend will likely have major implications. In 2012, 25% of all votes were cast by women without husbands. The book notes that on a historical basis, changes in the status of women and their resulting political and economic involvement have led to major social change. I think Traister is very likely correct in the direction and magnitude of her thesis, even if the specifics may not come to fruition exactly as she advocates. But in cases like this, it’s not necessarily the chain of events that’s important; it’s the recognition of the overall trend and preparedness for the coming changes that matters most. Forecasters rarely get all of the details right—which is important for investors to remember—but that doesn't mean an identified trend is unimportant in positioning.

The book relies heavily on anecdotes, to which I have my own to add. At an auto conference in New York, I overheard two European investors discussing how unusual and refreshing it was to see a female CEO—in this case, Mary Barra, the head of General Motors. Occidental Petroleum's next CEO also will be a woman, with Vicki Hollub named as successor. According to Traister, here is the reality as of 2010: women hold the majority of jobs, are 51% of management, 33% of all doctors (and receive half of all medical degrees), 45% of the country’s lawyers (and again half of all new J.D. recipients), and receive more than half of all master’s degrees granted. More women than men graduate high school and college as well. The sheer law of numbers suggests that there is a flood of progress working through the system.

While it is true that most CEOs are men, by a wide margin, and the gender wage gap remains a contentious issue, I have argued that with the coming generational shift, these disparities could close in 20 years. In a country where nearly 60% of college graduates are female, the pipeline of future CEOs should be increasingly full of bright and capable women. I believe C-suite underrepresentation will be almost gone within a generation.

And that, along with many of the other points Traister writes about, will have notable consequences because these changes will happen in all of the halls of power. Already within policymaking, finance, and economics, leaders like Janet Yellen, Sonia Sotomayor, Angela Merkel, Christine Lagarde, and others are making a profound impact. And while they are not the first female power brokers, hopefully soon they will be the rule, not the exception.

This rise in female leadership is why Traister's book is relevant: laws, policy, economic and purchasing decisions will all be changed meaningfully in the near future by women—and especially single women—in positions of power. This shift will likely have profound implications for politics and the policies that drive our countries; for companies and the products and services they offer; and even for asset managers and how they invest. The book may be out of many investors' comfort zones. It shouldn't be. Yes, while the book skews significantly to the left, the history it relates and the facts it offers are meaningful. All the Single Ladies may not have much to offer in the way of near-term investment decisions, but it may have a lot to offer in understanding what the U.S. and the world will look like in the coming years.