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Inflation, Recession Risk, and Duration

Director of Global Macro Research Francis Scotland joins Senior Vice President – Investment Specialist Katie Klingensmith to discuss the latest outlook for U.S. inflation. They analyze some of the most recent data, which could put Federal Reserve (Fed) credibility on the line—again. The Fed is focusing on tightness in the labor market and how sticky wage inflation might prop up service sector price inflation. However, the Treasury yield curve suggests that the market believes something different. In their conversation, Francis and Katie tackle the big questions, including the odds for a recession this year, whether cracks are beginning to show in the labor market, and where they see opportunities in duration.

Press play below to watch the full commentary.

Groupthink is bad, especially at investment management firms. Brandywine Global therefore takes special care to ensure our corporate culture and investment processes support the articulation of diverse viewpoints. This blog is no different. The opinions expressed by our bloggers may sometimes challenge active positioning within one or more of our strategies. Each blogger represents one market view amongst many expressed at Brandywine Global. Although individual opinions will differ, our investment process and macro outlook will remain driven by a team approach.