1. 00:00 Introduction »
2. 00:51 A year ago the story was deflation. »
3. 01:55 China's growth had fallen from 20% in 2011 and price levels were falling. »
4. 02:36 The Fed wanted to raise rates 3 or 4 times in 2016 despite the contraction in corporate profits. »
5. 03:41 Dollar strength helped drive the biggest bust in commodity prices in 85 years and forced EM countries to tighten policy in order to support their currencies. »
6. 03:57 Something Had to Give at the End of 2015, and It Did in 2016 »
7. 04:28 The Fed's Five Year Forward Breakeven Inflation Rate is still below 2% but it has staged a significant recovery from its lows. »
8. 04:54 China's growth slump ended. »
9. 05:01 China's deflation ended which supported commodity and traded good prices. »
10. 05:11 Growth in U.S. corporate revenues and profits rebounded on dollar stabilization. »
11. 05:18 EM FX rallied in the first half of 2016 providing the opportunity for stimulus from this part of the world. »
12. 05:32 Global growth has turned higher led by the emerging markets. »
13. 05:59 Leading indicators say global growth will continue to improve. »
14. 06:15 Strong commodity prices and a strong dollar only happen in context of strong global growth. »
15. 06:26 Economic policy around the world remains expansionary and looks set to continue to support this latest reflationary surge. »
16. 07:41 This is the third policy driven reflationary wave in play since the Great Financial Crisis. »
17. 08:59 Reflation has not worked since 2008 because of the secular forces driving the new normal. »
18. 10:49 But in 2016 American households stopped deleveraging. »
19. 12:14 Productivity is higher than the secular stagnationists suggest. »
20. 13:22 Expectations of a stimulative fiscal agenda have accelerated the "Stirrings of An End to Financial Repression" theme. »
21. 13:41 The financial firepower for a revival in "Animal Spirits" certainly exists. »
22. 16:35 Treasurys back to fair value. »
23. 17:43 Trump's expected tax agenda has fostered a dollar rally and expectations of more to come. But the currency is already expensive. »
24. 17:57 The dollar is anomalous in relation to short-term real interest rate spreads. »
25. 18:10 The Euro is the biggest constituent of DXY. »
26. 18:45 Appendix »