Research & Videos
1. |
00:00 |
Introduction |
2. |
01:02 |
Economic Surprise Indexes have fallen for most of 2018; the biggest disappointment coming from Europe. |
3. |
02:28 |
The Global PMI composite output measure has rebounded while the Global PMI for manufacturing activity is still declining. |
4. |
02:54 |
One OECD Leading Economic Indicator for OECD economies and the 6 major NME's has turned higher; the other is stabilizing. |
5. |
03:05 |
The OECD LEI for China has turned decisively higher this year after declining most of last year. |
6. |
03:37 |
European GDP growth likely will stabilize somewhere slightly below 2% based on the trend in money growth. |
7. |
03:58 |
Growth in the aggregate balance sheet of the world's major central banks is slowing but still positive. |
8. |
04:17 |
The Fed Funds rate is already close to central bank's estimates of the "neutral" rate. It will be mindful of raising rates and shrinking the balance sheet from here forward. |
9. |
04:54 |
China has ended the regulatory review which weighed on infrastructure spending. The focus has shifted to stabilizing the economy. |
10. |
06:41 |
The Global PMI for manufacturing new export orders is beginning to bottom out. |
11. |
08:09 |
Second quarter turbulence drove risk premiums in some EM fixed income markets to recession levels. |
12. |
16:15 |
Appendix 1 � Important Disclosure Information |