Global Macro Overview: 2nd Quarter 2018 | Research & Videos | Brandywine GLOBAL

Global Macro Overview: 2nd Quarter 2018

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1.  

00:00 

Introduction

2.  

01:02 

Economic Surprise Indexes have fallen for most of 2018; the biggest disappointment coming from Europe.

3.  

02:28 

The Global PMI composite output measure has rebounded while the Global PMI for manufacturing activity is still declining.

4.  

02:54 

One OECD Leading Economic Indicator for OECD economies and the 6 major NME's has turned higher; the other is stabilizing.

5.  

03:05 

The OECD LEI for China has turned decisively higher this year after declining most of last year.

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03:37 

European GDP growth likely will stabilize somewhere slightly below 2% based on the trend in money growth.

7.  

03:58 

Growth in the aggregate balance sheet of the world's major central banks is slowing but still positive.

8.  

04:17 

The Fed Funds rate is already close to central bank's estimates of the "neutral" rate. It will be mindful of raising rates and shrinking the balance sheet from here forward.

9.  

04:54 

China has ended the regulatory review which weighed on infrastructure spending. The focus has shifted to stabilizing the economy.

10.  

06:41 

The Global PMI for manufacturing new export orders is beginning to bottom out.

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08:09 

Second quarter turbulence drove risk premiums in some EM fixed income markets to recession levels.

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16:15 

Appendix 1 � Important Disclosure Information