Francis A. Scotland »
Francis joined the firm in 2006 and has developed a proprietary global macroeconomic research structure to support the fixed-income group's investment process, and also provides investment ideas and strategic asset allocation recommendations. From 1984 until 2005, Francis was a principal of the BCA Research Group ('BCA'), formerly the Bank Credit Analyst, and head of global investment strategy. Read More »
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The Global Economic Outlook
This Economic Boom Will Probably Include At Least an Inflation Scare
The U.S. Dollar
What Are the Key Elements in the Macro Outlook?
Policy Makers Seem to Be Acting Differently. Have We Embraced Modern Monetary Theory and Would That Represent a Regime Change?
Will This Regime Change Cause Inflation?
Can You Review the Quarter and the Outlook?
What About the Future? Can We Sustain V-Shaped Recoveries?
What About the Pandemic? Won’t Successive Waves of the Disease Knock Us Back into Recession?
How Does the U.S. Election Outcome Affect the Outlook?
The Worst Global Recession in History
Lockdowns Kept the Virus from Overwhelming Health Care Capacity
Assumption: We Learn to Live with It and Science Overcomes It
Policy Support Essential in Interim
When Fear Ends the Cumulative Boost from Lower Yields Could Be Substantial
Cumulative Policy Stimulus Substantial as Well
Gold Captures the Declining Opportunity Cost of Owning Fiat Money
Commodity Price Inflation a Good Gauge of the Success of Global Reflation
CRB and the Economy Usually Catch up to Reflation...
A Steeper Yield Curve Requires the World Economy to Gain Traction
Still Early, but All This Stimulus More Anti-deflationary Than Inflationary
In a Zero Bound Dollar Denominated World, Reflation Requires a Weaker Dollar
Fed Has Moved on the Supply Side
Rate Spreads Don't Support the Dollar